A political analyst has warned that rural communities across Northern Nigeria are being systematically displaced as insecurity worsens and spreads under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration between May 2023 and June 2026.
The assessment was made by Engr. Abdulauf Adamu, Director of Consultancy Services for Information and Communication Technology at the Jigawa State Polytechnic, Kazaure.
In an exclusive interview with DAILY POST, Adamu gave a full evaluation of Nigeria’s security situation.
According to him, a fair assessment must begin with what the administration inherited in 2023.
“When President Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, insecurity was already widespread. Many Nigerians were living in fear, especially in rural areas regularly besieged by non-state armed groups,” he said.
He added that insecurity had already disrupted education and economic life across the country.
“Insecurity was also taking a grave toll on economic activities, particularly commerce and agriculture, and schools in many parts of the country were shut down following mass abductions of students,” he said.
He stressed that this context is critical as no fair analysis can attribute the structural roots of Northern insecurity to any single administration.
The analyst noted some limited progress in the North-East, particularly in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states.
“There has been a significant reduction in insurgency-related deaths across parts of the North-East. These developments do not signify victory, but they show degradation of insurgent capacity,” he said.
He added that joint operations with international partners also contributed to counter-terrorism gains.
“Joint operations with foreign partners, including the United States, reportedly contributed to the elimination of senior ISIS-linked figures in the Lake Chad region,” he said.
He warned that tactical eliminations do not address root causes.
Turning to the North-West, he described the situation as the most troubling.
“This is the most damning evidence against the administration’s security record,” he said.
He warned that banditry is not being contained but spreading.
He noted that the number of states affected by rural banditry increased from nine in 2024 to 16 in 2025.
Adamu stated that displacement figures continue to rise.
“By February 2025, more than 580,000 people, the majority of them women had fled their homes across Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara,” he said.
He further highlighted an escalation in violence between late 2025 and early 2026.
“In November 2025, at least 402 people, mostly schoolchildren, were kidnapped across four northern states, surpassing the scale of the Chibok abduction,” he said.
He added that in January 2026, more than 160 worshippers were abducted, while in February 2026, armed groups attacked villages in Kwara, killing over 160 people.
The analyst stressed that rural communities are bearing the worst of the crisis.
“The most damning evidence comes from what is happening to the physical fabric of rural communities themselves,” he said.
He noted that Zamfara State continues to experience near-daily attacks.
“In Zamfara alone, attacks occur daily sometimes multiple times in a single day,” he said.
He also pointed to Benue State, where he said over 200 villages have been destroyed.
“In Benue State alone, over 200 villages have been sacked, displacing about 450,000 people,” he said.
He added that attacks are often deliberately structured to prevent return.
“In some cases, attackers destroy boreholes, clinics and schools infrastructure that would make return possible. This is a scorched-earth strategy against rural life itself,” he said.
He also warned about the emergence of new armed groups in previously stable areas.
“In the two years since Tinubu assumed power, new armed groups including Lakurawa in Sokoto and Kebbi and Mamuda in Kwara have emerged,” he said.
He described Lakurawa as more than a typical bandit group.
“Lakurawa has transitioned into a coercive militant actor, operating a hybrid model combining insurgency, banditry and proto-governance,” he said.
He added that it enforces rules, collects taxes, and seizes livestock and food produce from communities.
“The inability of Nigeria’s government to provide security for its people has led directly to the breeding of such groups,” he said.
He further noted that insecurity is spreading into previously unaffected areas.
“Populations in Plateau and Benue are facing increased risks amid rising inter-communal violence,” he said.
He added that Kwara State has also become a new hotspot.
“Kwara State has also emerged as a new venue for inter-communal violence,” he said.
He referenced a major attack in which hundreds of militants attacked villages and killed at least 162 residents in one of the deadliest incidents in recent months.
He concluded that the overall situation is deteriorating rapidly.
“Rural Nigeria in 2026 is more dangerous, more displaced, and more abandoned than it was in 2023,” he said.
He added that the threat landscape has not just deepened, it has broadened, with new armed actors and new states affected.
“The violence is not random. It is systematic and designed to permanently displace rural populations,” he said.
He warned that unless governance extends beyond military patrols, the crisis will continue.
“Until the Nigerian state resolves to govern its rural territories not just patrol them, this trajectory will not reverse,” he said.
He further added that the most likely outcome is not resolution but management.
“The most realistic outcome is a managed crisis rather than a solved one contained enough not to destabilise the election, but nowhere is resolved enough to change the lived reality of a farmer in Zamfara or a mother in Benue. That is a deeply unsatisfying answer, but it is the honest one,” he said.
Insecurity: Rural Nigeria in 2026 more dangerous, displaced, abandoned – Adamu
