Former Atiku Abubakar presidential campaign spokesman, Segun Sowunmi, has said it would be difficult for any opposition candidate to defeat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election, arguing that the president remains politically dominant despite growing criticism of his administration.
Speaking during an interview with ARISE NEWS on Thursday, Sowunmi said Tinubu had moved from being a candidate whose victory depended largely on his own performance to one who now enjoys a significant advantage because of the weaknesses within the opposition.
“Before now, it was his election to lose. But right now, it will be magical for anybody to easily beat him. The opposition has not shown that it has the unity, structure and strength required to take him on.”
He argued that while many opposition politicians continue to criticise the government, they have failed to demonstrate the level of organisation.
“The opposition today is not showing enough seriousness. You can’t just gather people together and assume that because you are angry with the government, Nigerians will automatically hand over power to you.”
The PDP chieftain maintained that elections in Nigeria are won through political structure. “The elections are residual decision-making events. It’s also a science. And there’s a science of numbers. There’s a science of money. There’s a science of the science itself. And there’s a science of outcome based on predictability
He also questioned the readiness of newer political platforms to compete effectively in a national election. “When you are a frequent joiner, in an election that requires you to be able to easily identify a platform, recognise symbols, and make commitments at grassroots up to whatever numbers you’re expecting, you’ll see where the challenge of Peter Obi’s efforts are.”
Sowunmi argued that President Tinubu currently enjoys significant political advantages due to the strength of the APC’s structures nationwide.
“The fact of the matter is that the President is sitting really pretty. Political machinery is well-armed. You can see that almost all their structures are beginning to fire on, and I can imagine that by the time they blow the whistle, it will almost be like a hurricane sweeping people.”
He predicted that Tinubu would not only win re-election but could also help secure victories for APC candidates across the country. “So my bet right now is that the President will win it, and more than likely, he will be able to pull a lot of his governors across the line, and he will also most likely get majority Senate and majority Rep.”
Sowunmi blamed the current state of Nigeria’s political landscape on what he described as the failure to build durable political parties that can survive beyond individual ambitions. “We found ourselves here because we did not really quickly understand that democratic parties must be built to last, and that the stability of political parties cannot be built around the ambition of individuals.”
“What we have done now, from what we can see, is that almost all the parties have become fiefdoms of one individual.”
Responding to concerns about calls for Tinubu’s resignation over the economy and insecurity, Sowunmi said public dissatisfaction does not necessarily translate into electoral defeat.
“No president is popular all through his tenure. There will always be those polls you do to say what is the approval rating today? Today is high, tomorrow is low, tomorrow is high, tomorrow is low.”
He maintained that incumbency provides opportunities for governments to showcase achievements during election campaigns.
“Political parties are naturally going to start marketing what they’ve done, especially incumbents. And they will have the privilege of showing roads, some of the things they’ve done.”
Sowunmi pointed to the Federal Capital Territory as an example of ongoing government projects that could become campaign assets.
“If you look at the FCT for instance now, how do you tell anybody that they are not working there? That’s almost too late. They’ve been up for 22 days only to do projects. Those projects are not in the sky, they are on land.”
Drawing comparisons with the 2015 election that removed the PDP from power, he said opposition parties succeeded then because they built a united coalition behind a common objective.
“What we saw was that they put two big parties, ACN and CPC, with two big gladiators, Bola Tinubu and Muhammadu Buhari of blessed memory. They joined them together.”
He contrasted that strategy with the current opposition landscape. “Those who are supposed to have created a coalition of an opposition, they couldn’t even agree to do primaries. And by the time they got to consensus, almost everybody had voted out.”
Sowunmi described Tinubu as one of Nigeria’s most experienced political operators and suggested that his understanding of party organisation gives him an advantage over rivals.
“By every stretch of imagination, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is probably the very first real politician that is sitting in the office of president.”
“So what do they know that he doesn’t know?”
He further predicted that Tinubu would improve on his 2023 electoral performance in several regions of the country, including the South-East, South-South, North-Central and North-West.
“The president is going to win good numbers in the south-south. And he’s going to win a significantly better number in the southeast.”
“The president is going to do very well in the north-central.”
“The president is going to do significantly better than he did the last time in the northwest.”
Sowunmi estimated that Tinubu could secure as many as 22 states if current political trends continue.
“If he works very hard, he could do with 22 states.”
Despite acknowledging that politics can be unpredictable, he said his assessment remains that Tinubu is currently in a commanding position. “24 hours is a very long time. Anything can happen.”
“Well, I may be wrong, but I think the president will win this election easier than he won the last one.”
On the judiciary, Sowunmi warned that public confidence in the courts must be protected if Nigeria’s democracy is to remain stable.
“Any society that loses the integrity of its judiciary is just a society waiting to implode.”
“It’s not enough for them to do justice. They must do justice, justice must be seen to be done.”
Tinubu Will Win 2027 Easier Than 2023, Says Sowunmi is first published on The Whistler Newspaper
