•Why N3.3trn won’t give you power supply — Experts
…Cite failed promises, disagreement over size of debt
By Nnamdi Ojiego and Ediri Ejoh
Two weeks after Minister of Power, Mr Adebayo Adelabu, assured citizens of imminent
relief from persistent outages, a cross-country check suggests that for many households and businesses, the reality has barely changed.
This came as recent announcement by President Bola Tinubu of the approval of N3.3 trillion for the settlement of outstanding debt in the nation’s power sector has been received with mixed feelings.
While some experts believe the statement in its entirety, others question its authenticity, describing it as a recurring narrative that has become a trend.
Adelabu had, on March 24, while addressing the media in Abuja, publicly apologised for the wave of blackouts that swept across the country, admitting that the situation had worsened living conditions at a time of intense heat.
He acknowledged the strain on homes, schools and industries, attributing the disruption largely to gas supply constraints and technical issues beyond the government’s immediate control.
“I want to apologise to Nigerians… for this temporary issue that is leading to hardship being experienced,” the Minister said, while promising that “two weeks from now, we should start seeing improvements in supply.”
That deadline expired on Friday.
But from Abuja to Lagos, and across several states, many Nigerians say the promised improvement has yet to materialise.
Worsening situation
In Utako, a district in Abuja, residents described a pattern of prolonged outages and brief, inconsistent supply.
Ekwa Mbuk, one of the affected residents, expressed frustration over what he called a worsening situation.
“So why are we at Utako District subjected to darkness for another night? The heat is sickening. This constant power outage is messing up the quality of life of your customers. Do you care? Please give us light,” he said, in a complaint directed at the Abuja Electricity Distribution Company.
He added that the power supply in the area had been erratic, with entire days passing without electricity, followed by only a short period of restoration.
“Since last night, no light… we’ve had only an hour of light. Are we getting what we’re paying for?” he asked.
Classifications
Similar sentiments echoed in Lagos, where Iyke Oscar questioned the rationale behind tariff classifications that promised extended supply.
“Why are we still paying as Band A, if we can’t have light up to 24 hours?” he asked, pointing to the growing disconnect between billing structures and actual service delivery.
Familiar pattern
Across the states, the accounts follow a familiar pattern.
In Delta, Abednego Emonena dismissed the situation bluntly: “Electricity in Nigeria is still a joke.”
In Ondo, Akin Muyiwa said residents in Akure had all but given up on the expectation of stable supply. “We don’t know what’s called electricity,” he remarked.
From Imo, Mary Blossom reported that parts of Owerri had experienced a near-total blackout for weeks. “For the past four weeks, no light,” she said.
In Edo State, Diana Efe described outages stretching into days. “This is the fifth day we haven’t seen electricity since rain fell,” she noted, while another resident, Aino, said communities were left with barely two hours of supply daily.
Elsewhere, the frustration is tinged with resignation. In Ekiti, Mr. Awo Adekunle summed it up: “No light, we just dey pay bill.”
Cynthia in Ogun State pointed to a pattern tied to weather conditions. “Once rain falls, no light for the next 12 hours, sometimes 24 hours,” she said, suggesting that infrastructure fragility continues to worsen outages.
For some, the situation has become almost surreal.
Abolanle Ajirowo wondered aloud whether official assurances referred to a different reality. “Maybe there’s another Nigeria we don’t know about,” she said.
Structural problem
Behind these reactions lies a deeper structural problem. Nigeria’s electricity generation has continued to hover around 4,000 megawatts, far below what is required for a population of over 200 million. Per capita electricity consumption remains between 144 and 165 kilowatt-hours, according to data from the International Energy Agency, placing the country well below the African average of 617 kWh.
The implications are visible in daily life. With grid supply unreliable, households and businesses are forced to rely on alternatives such as generators, inverters and solar systems. These come at significant cost, effectively creating a parallel, self-funded energy system.
Power bank rental
“Electricity remains unreliable, forcing people to depend on generators, inverters, or solar setups,” said Obinna Eze. “So you pay for electricity, even when it’s not consistent.”
In a sign of how deeply the crisis has reshaped everyday economics, new micro-businesses have emerged to fill the gap.
Power bank rentals, for instance, are now available in parts of Kaduna, Sokoto, Kano, Plateau, Niger, Nasarawa, Delta, Edo, Anambra, Imo and Lagos, offering temporary relief for phone charging and small devices at daily or weekly rates.
For now, the Federal Government maintains that improvements are on the way, tied to the repair of critical gas infrastructure and enforcement of supply obligations among producers.
Adelabu had expressed confidence that restored gas flow, particularly from facilities linked to major operators, would stabilise generation.
Yet, as the deadline he set passed without clear nationwide improvement, public patience appears to be thinning.
What remains is a familiar cycle of promise and delay, with millions of Nigerians still waiting, often in the dark, for a power sector turnaround that has long been anticipated but remains elusive.
Experts speak on N3.3trillion for power sector
Meanwhile, the announcement by Tinubu of the approval of N3.3 trillion for the settlement of outstanding debt in the power sector has been received with mixed feelings.
While some experts believe the statement in its entirety, others question its authenticity, describing it as a recurring narrative that has become a trend.
Sunday Vanguard findings reveal that prior to the latest declaration by the President, Adelabu, the Minister of Power, had announced the disbursement of the same amount in 2024, while the Debt Management Office (DMO) had already securitised about N4.5 trillion for the settlement of the same power sector debt.
Thus, some analysts view statements from the Presidency as mere sound bites aimed at scoring political points at the expense of Nigerian citizens, their businesses, and the economy at large.
While Nigerians suffer epileptic power supply, an estimated N40 trillion is lost annually due to poor electricity supply.
The Nigerian Independent System Operator, an agency of the Federal Government, had, a couple of weeks ago in a report, stated that persistent outages continue to impose high costs on businesses and households, many of which are forced to generate their own electricity.
According to the report, reliable electricity remains one of Nigeria’s most important economic priorities, stressing that power outages cost the country up to $29 billion annually.
Converted at the prevailing exchange rate of N1,385 to a dollar, this translates to roughly N40.1 trillion in yearly losses to the economy.
The operator added that the burden extends across all sectors, noting that businesses, manufacturers, and households spend billions each year generating their own electricity.
The shortfall in supply has continued to deepen electricity shortages, pushing homes and businesses to rely increasingly on alternative energy sources amid rising operating costs and harsh weather conditions.
The trajectories
Adelabu, on March 29, 2024, was quoted as saying on his Facebook page: “During my recent visit to the Egbin Power Plant, I reiterated that we have conducted a thorough diagnosis of the challenges currently facing our power sector in Nigeria. These challenges range from infrastructure limitations to supply chain constraints, and we are taking urgent action to address them and enhance power supply across the country.
“To this end, the Federal Government is fully committed to implementing proactive measures. Starting in April, we will prioritise the settlement of outstanding debts owed to power plants like Egbin Power. By doing so, our goal is to provide incentives for the continuous operation of these crucial facilities and to enhance their overall efficiency.”
Also, on October 7, 2025, the Minister was quoted as saying, “To stabilise the market, Mr. President has approved a N4 trillion bond to clear verified GenCo and gas supply debts.”
However, the Presidential Power Sector Financial Reforms Programme follows Tinubu’s approval of a N3.3 trillion payment plan to settle legacy debts accumulated between February 2015 and March 2025.
According to a release last Sunday, implementation has begun, with 15 power plants signing settlement agreements totalling N2.3 trillion.
The Federal Government said it had already raised N501 billion to fund these payments.
Of the amount, N223 billion was said to have been disbursed, with further payments underway.
Stakeholders, in the meantime, have questioned whether earlier approvals were effectively implemented or merely political statements, noting that three years down the line, no significant actions have been taken, while records of grid collapses continue to plague the country’s national grid.
Presidency report
A document tagged, ‘A Financial Reset for Nigeria’s Power Sector: The Presidential Financial Reforms Programme (2015-2026) – a chronological overview of efforts to resolve the power sector’s liquidity crisis and transition to a sustainable market-based framework,’ shows the origins of the N4.7 trillion debt, outlining a decade of tariff shortfalls, liquidity constraints, and structural inefficiencies which led to massive outstanding obligations across the power value chain.
It states: “The vicious cycle of liquidity shortfall—unpaid debts to GENCOs leading to arrears for gas suppliers—has constrained generation and rendered the sector non-bankable, culminating in a N4.7 trillion deficit.”
It notes that in 2024–2025, despite the N4.7 trillion claimed by GENCOs, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) established a N4 trillion cap, stating: “The FEC approved a settlement framework with a prudential ceiling of N4 trillion to ensure fiscal discipline.”
However, on its verification and negotiated settlement deal, the report said: “N3.3 trillion: The final negotiated figure, after rigorous verification, reduced the initial N4.7 trillion claim by 30 per cent through the removal of inflated, unsupported, or non-compliant charges.
“The market-based settlement mechanism includes cost-reflective tariffs, accelerated metering, and improved operational efficiency to prevent future debt accumulation.”
GENCOs reality, denial
While some GENCOs expressed confidence in the programme, others argued otherwise, noting that past experiences may have eroded trust in the system.
Speaking on the development and the impact of the N3.3 trillion on the power sector, Executive Director of the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC), Dr. Joy Ogaji, said: “We only have it on paper.
“Yes, N3.3 trillion is what the government said it has approved, but we do not have details of what it covers or whether it includes the period from 2015 to 2024.
“The news we all have is political. Claims that it is up to date are questionable because reconciliation of invoices from 2015 to March 2025 has not been completed.
“The invoice for March 2025 was not included, and possibly February 2025 was also excluded due to the 45-day billing cycle.”
On solutions, another operator who spoke anonymously said: “Power sector issues need to be categorised.
“Yes, this is a pre-election period, so it is easy for the government to push liquidity solutions for compiled debts.
“But we must not deny that the debt claimed by GENCOs exists.
“All contractual terms, including interest on delayed payments, must be honoured.
“The GENCOs took loans when the exchange rate was about N155 to the dollar, but today it is over N1, 300. Who bears the difference?”
The source also pointed to a lack of transparency in billing and collection systems, calling for reforms and stronger oversight.
Others see things differently
Another source said: “I believe the government is sincere. The money will be paid, and fidelity to contracts is important. Government-imposed haircuts should not become the norm.”
Also reacting, energy economist and Executive Director, Emmanuel Egbigah Foundation, Prof. Wumi Iledare, said: “The power sector is not just underperforming—it is financially strained.
“Over N4 trillion in legacy debt continues to choke the entire value chain.
“What’s worse is that past solutions have been mostly stopgaps, addressing liquidity issues without fixing structural problems.
“At the core are non-cost-reflective tariffs, weak contract enforcement, and poor institutional coordination.
“The result is a cycle of debt recycling, not resolution.”
Electricity becoming a campaign issue – CPPE
For his part, Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said: “This is a pre-election period, and electricity is becoming a campaign issue. The government will likely make strong efforts to fulfill its promises.
“However, unless structural challenges are addressed, the sector may relapse. The key is ensuring the sector generates its own liquidity and attracts capable investors. Tariff reform is inevitable, though it must be gradual to avoid undue hardship.”
A step in the right direction – Independent Power
However, reacting, Managing Director of First Independent Power Limited, Mr. Seyi Sobogun, described the development as a critical step toward restoring stability.
“We welcome the progress made so far. Addressing legacy debts is crucial to improving system performance,” he said.
He noted that the N501 billion bond issuance, which was fully subscribed, reflects growing market confidence.
“We remain committed to working with stakeholders to strengthen the sector and improve electricity supply nationwide,” he added.
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