A political analyst in Kano, Hassan Ibrahim, has said that Kano voters have a long-standing history of removing incumbent leaders.
He warned that the 2027 governorship election in the state could follow a similar pattern.
Ibrahim stated this in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST while reacting to the emergence of Aminu Abdussalam as the governorship candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) ahead of the 2027 elections.
He noted that although incumbency often gives an advantage in Nigerian politics, Kano remains unique.
“In Kano politics, one cannot say because someone is an incumbent, he will automatically win. Kano people are used to defeating incumbents. If they feel another candidate is better, they can vote him out,” he said.
Consensus strategy prevented internal crisis in NDC – Ibrahim
Ibrahim described the NDC’s adoption of consensus in selecting its candidates as a smart move that has helped the party avoid internal crisis.
Speaking on the emergence of the party’s candidates, he said the decision to adopt consensus rather than primaries was key to maintaining unity within the party.
According to him, the party is still new and faced early leadership challenges before the emergence of its current structure.
“This is because the party is new, and when Kwankwaso recently joined the party, they had a dispute in terms of the chairmanship. Kwankwaso was able to settle that issue, and that was a very big achievement in the first place,” he explained.
He said the party had three options in selecting candidates ahead of the 2027 elections.
“Going into the process of picking candidates, they had two options: either direct primaries or indirect primaries, and then they have consensus as the third method,” he said.
He noted that the leadership deliberately chose consensus to avoid division.
“So Kwankwaso made a very good decision whereby they opted to go for consensus because the party needed to avoid internal fight. If they didn’t avoid internal fight, that could have the potential to derail the party ahead of the 2027 election, and that would have been a catastrophic mistake,” he added.
Ibrahim said the consensus exercise was conducted peacefully without disagreement.
“The consensus exercise was smoothly conducted and was free from rancour,” he said.
He noted that the outcome surprised many observers.
“For many viewers, it came as a surprise because they didn’t expect the consensus to go this way,” he added.
The analyst said the process became more complex due to the large number of defectors who joined the party from other political platforms, including the ruling APC in Kano.
He said many of them are influential politicians with strong political followings.
“Kwankwaso came into the party (NDC) with his Kwankwasiyya movement, and there were a lot of defectors from their former political parties, including the APC in Kano, who defected to the NDC,” he said.
Among them, he mentioned former deputy governor and 2023 APC governorship candidate, Nasir Yusuf Gawuna, former senator and ex-governor Kabiru Ibrahim Gaya, and other political figures such as Batayya, Aminu Suleiman Goro, and Mustapha Bala Dawaki.
He described them as political giants whose ambitions had to be carefully managed.
Ibrahim said part of the success of the consensus process was convincing some aspirants to step down for others.
“So for Kwankwaso to be able to manage those ambitions and egos of the defectors and settle that issue is a very big achievement,” he said.
He added that many of them initially had personal political ambitions, including contesting for senatorial and other positions, but agreed to step down for the sake of unity.
“Succeeding in convincing a lot of them to step down to contest is highly commendable from the NDC and its leader in Kano, in person of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso,” he said.
NDC’s gubernatorial candidate experienced, familiar to Kano voters
On the candidacy of Abdulsalam, Ibrahim described him as experienced and widely known in Kano politics.
Abdulsalam’s political background makes him a familiar name across the state.
“Comrade Abdulsalam is highly qualified. He has served as local government chairman, commissioner, and deputy governor. His name is not new in Kano,” he said.
The analyst explained that Abdulsalam’s experience has helped him build political visibility across different levels of government.
He recalled that he previously contested alongside governor Yusuf, making him a familiar figure among voters.
“He was part of the earlier political arrangement with Governor Yusuf on a joint ticket in 2019, where he contested alongside Governor Yusuf, and they lost. Also, in 2023, they won the election under the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), where he became deputy governor. This made him a familiar face to many voters in Kano,” Ibrahim added.
According to him, Abdulsalam’s experience across local government administration, state executive roles, and party politics positions him as a strong contender in the upcoming election.
2027 governorship race will be very competitive
Despite backing Abdussalam credentials, Ibrahim agreed that the 2027 race between Abdussalam and Yusuf would be highly competitive.
He noted that while incumbency usually plays a strong role in Nigerian elections due to access to government structures and resources, Kano voters often defy expectations.
“To say he will defeat the incumbent is difficult. It is a 50-50 situation. The incumbency factor is there, but Kano voters can decide otherwise,” he said.
“In Kano politics, you cannot rely only on incumbency. The people are very decisive. If they feel another candidate is better, they will vote the incumbent out,” he explained.
He maintained that despite the advantages of incumbency, Kano voters remain unpredictable and historically capable of voting out sitting governors.
“Anything can happen. The election will be very tight because both candidates know each other’s strengths and weaknesses,” he added.
Ibrahim further explained that political dynamics within the state, including the influence of party leaders and voter sentiment, will play a major role in the outcome.
According to him, the influence of the Kwankwasiyya movement remains strong, as supporters often follow the direction of their leader in deciding who to vote for.
“Kwankwaso can sell any candidate in Kano. The Kwankwasiyya followers usually go with his direction on who to support,” he said.
He also noted that there is a growing political tension among voters, with some seeing the current governor as having betrayed his former political ally, which could influence voting decisions.
“There are issues where some voters feel Abba Kabir Yusuf has betrayed his former boss. That sentiment is in the minds of some people, and it may affect how they vote, this is an edge for Abdussalam Gwarzo,” he added.
The analyst further said there is a significant number of undecided voters in the state, which could swing the outcome of the election in either direction.
“There are also undecided voters. People who are not yet sure where they will go. That group will be very important in deciding the election,” he said.
“Anything can happen, but on acceptability, yes, Gwarzo will get acceptance. For Abdussalam to defeat gov Yusuf, yes, it is possible, and yes, it is not possible. Only time will tell.”
On whether there are internal disagreements within the party, the analyst dismissed concerns of major conflict.
“I don’t think there is significant bickering. The process was largely accepted by members, and the choices made were appropriate,” he said.
NDC faces slim chance in Kano 2027 governorship race – Kabiru Ojo
Another political analyst, Kabiru Ojo, has said that the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) has a slim chance of winning the 2027 governorship election in Kano State.
He cited internal divisions and shifting political alliances within the state.
Ojo made the observation in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST, where he analysed the chances of key political actors ahead of the next general elections.
According to him, the emergence of Comrade Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo as the NDC governorship candidate through a consensus arrangement, as well as recent political movements involving key stakeholders, may affect the party’s strength going into the election.
“So as for the NDC chances of winning the gubernatorial election, it is very narrow,” he said.
He explained that the political structure around Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has been split, with some supporters aligning with Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf while others moved to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), weakening a unified bloc.
“Kwankwaso already split most of his supporters. Some moved along with Governor Abba Yusuf, and after going to ADC, some refused to leave ADC to NDC. So this has divided the Kwankwasiyya movement,” he said.
Ojo also argued that the entry of Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna into the NDC affected expectations among his supporters, many of whom had believed he would be given the governorship ticket.
“When Gawuna came to NDC, most of his supporters were thinking he would be presented as the flag bearer. But unfortunately, he was projected to Kano Central Senate ticket,” he said.
He added that this development has created dissatisfaction among some of Gawuna’s supporters and even within sections of the Kwankwasiyya political structure.
“Some of Gawuna’s supporters are not happy, and even some Kwankwasiyya members are not ready to support Gwarzo because they feel he is not influential enough,” Ojo said.
According to him, some supporters believe that Gwarzo may not have the same political strength needed to secure victory, compared to figures who contributed to previous electoral successes in the state.
He noted that in the last election, victory was not achieved by Kwankwaso alone but through the combined efforts of several stakeholders, including influential figures in the senatorial districts.
“What made Kwankwaso win Gawuna last time was not only Kwankwaso. It included others in the senatorial district like Kawu Sumaila and others. Now most of them are with Abba in APC,” he said.
He, however, noted that the selection of Gwarzo was done through a consensus process within the party.
Ojo maintained that the selection of Gwarzo was not an imposition but a collective decision reached by party stakeholders.
“So choosing Gwarzo was not an imposition. It was a collective agreement by all members of the NDC party,” he added.
2027: How Kano voters will choose between Gwarzo, Yusuf – Ibrahim, Kabiru
